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Lower inflation, driven by declining food prices, is expected to allow the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates further this fiscal year, with Morgan Stanley projecting an average CPI inflation of 4% for FY26. The central bank's recent rate cut to 6.25% marks the first in five years, and another reduction is anticipated in April, potentially bringing the policy rate down to 5.75%. Economists suggest that additional cuts could occur if inflation remains low or credit growth stays below 12%.
Investors have sharply reduced their allocation to US stocks, with a record 40% drop in March, as described by Bank of America strategists as a "bull crash." This shift comes amid a 10% decline in the S&P 500, with cash allocations rising, reflecting heightened concerns over a potential global recession triggered by trade tensions. Despite a recent uptick in stock prices, market sentiment remains cautious, with many investors awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision for further direction.
UBS has raised its gold price forecast to $3,200 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global trade tensions and economic uncertainty. The bank anticipates this target could be reached within the next four quarters, supported by strong inflows into bullion-backed ETFs and central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes this year. Analysts from other major financial institutions also share a bullish outlook, with projections suggesting gold could rise even higher, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risks and economic slowdown fears.
The National Council has called for strengthening the role of FINMA and increasing equity requirements for banks following the Credit Suisse collapse. Proposed measures include centralized supervision of audits, enhanced powers for FINMA to enforce decisions, and limitations on capital and liquidity support for large banks. Additionally, the Council seeks to address executive bonuses and improve shareholder power in systemically important companies.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range amid mixed economic signals and a cautious outlook influenced by recent protectionist policies. Key indicators, including a drop in consumer confidence and mixed inflation data, complicate the Fed's decision-making.Market reactions will hinge on the Fed's tone and the release of the "dot plot," which outlines members' future rate expectations. Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference will be crucial for insights on inflation, employment, and potential rate cuts, with a significant probability of cuts anticipated by June.
German 10-year borrowing costs could reach 4%, the highest since 2008, as the country plans a significant increase in spending on defense and infrastructure. A proposed 500-billion-euro fund and changes to borrowing rules are expected to lead to nearly 150 billion euros in additional debt by 2028. Analysts predict yields will rise from the current 2.85% to a range of 2.5% to 3% in the short term, with potential increases driven by higher growth and inflation.
Wells Fargo has successfully lifted a consent order from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regarding its home lending practices, reducing its regulatory orders to three. This marks the fifth order resolved in 2025, raising speculation that the bank may soon have the Federal Reserve's asset cap lifted.
German borrowing costs are projected to rise, potentially reaching levels not seen since 2008, due to an anticipated increase in government spending. BNP Paribas has highlighted this trend, indicating significant implications for the country's financial landscape.
German 10-year borrowing costs are projected to rise to 4%, the highest since 2008, as the country plans a significant increase in defense and infrastructure spending. A proposed 500-billion-euro fund aims to ease borrowing restrictions, potentially leading to nearly 150 billion euros in additional debt by 2028. Analysts expect yields to initially range between 2.5% and 3%, with the European Central Bank possibly adjusting rates in response to increased growth and inflation.
Swiss lawmakers have approved proposals to regulate major banks following the investigation into Credit Suisse's collapse. Key measures include limiting capital relief for systemically important banks, enhancing the powers of financial regulator Finma, and revisiting the overall purpose of bank regulation in Switzerland. The government is expected to draft legislation incorporating these demands by May.
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